How to Overcome the Inventory Crisis

How to Overcome the Inventory Crisis?

Inventory has not increased and prices are on the rise. What does this year look like and what can agents do to stay in the game?

Before we jump into how to overcome where we are in real estate as agents, we need to understand some basic economic principles and how that affects us today.

 

Four Real Estate Cycles

 

Let’s start with the four real estate cycles and what they are.

The first is recovery. This is a tricky phase to identify as this phase takes place after a recession and most people are so burnt out on the effects of the recession to even see recovery on the horizon. This is the best time to buy real estate on the onset. We saw this around 2011-2013.

 

The second phase is expansion. This is where the general economy is improving, job growth is strong and there is an increased demand for space and housing. The expansion phase is when the general public will start regaining their confidence in the economy. This market is where renters and homebuyers will start generating demand again. While the market is on an upswing, it’s advantageous to invest your efforts into developing or redeveloping properties that cater to the current market’s taste and sell for more than market value.

 

Then we move into hyper supply as the third phase. This is where developers and investors get into a frenzy during the expansion phase to ensure that supply meets a growing demand. Eventually it hits a tipping point where supply begins to exceed demand, either from too much inventory on the market or because of a sudden shift in the economy or worldwide that causes fear and stops the demand. This is a great time to us the buy and hold strategy so that you have properties in stock when it’s an ideal time to sell again.

 

The fourth phase is recession. This is one that we’re all too familiar with whether or not you were in real estate during this time. The market crashing in the 2000’s was a combination of the perfect storm, which left the entire nation struggling for many years following. In the case of the 2000’s, subprime loans, an oversupply of inventory, inflated prices and lots of fraud and greed. If you want to understand it in more detail, check out the movie The Big Short. Typically during this phase, supply exceeds demand by a large margin and property owners see high vacancy rates in their rentals. This is a great opportunity to purchase distressed properties and wait until the market recovers to sell.

 

These four cycles typically represent a 7 year period where the market corrects itself.

 

However, since the recession in 2008, we have not seen this.

 

We saw the recession from 2008-2010 where there was a significant number of foreclosures, short sales and vacancies. Then from 2011-2013 we saw recovery and prices steadily increase. We saw expansion start around 2014 and continue through 2019 which is quite a long period for this phase but then we saw hyper supply hit in 2020 during the pandemic. It’s been going for almost two years straight with the largest equity and price increase seen from 2021 until now.

 

Homeowners have averaged a $67K gain in equity just during the pandemic ($300K in San Francisco, but that’s not our market so we don’t need to talk about that ridiculousness). People have seen higher ROI’s in buying and selling during the pandemic than in any other possible investment.

We haven’t seen a correction.

 

So people naturally think, there’s going to be another bubble popping. I agree that something has to give but let’s look at facts and…

 

 

Why this isn’t a bubble like 2008:

 

1. Low inventory
2. Cash – higher downpayments and paying appraisal gaps or removing appraisal contingencies
3. Tight restrictions on lending

Just when I think we may have experienced a slow down, 2020 happened and working remotely changed everything. Feeling “mishoused” became a real thing. This is when people had the right house until the pandemic happened and then everything felt too close for comfort so they no longer “fit” in their homes. Working environments at home and schooling from home made homes feel very tight and people wanted more space. We saw so many “move-up’ buyers that were looking for more space. Pool sales and installs and outdoor activities and remodels skyrocketed. People had to figure out what to do with their space while they were stuck at home and make it comfortable. If they couldn’t afford to move, then they were remodeling.

Florida saw a massive increase in relocations from other states, especially New York (which is typical for retirees but now we were seeing younger and younger families moving from NY earlier than normal) and California. In droves they were moving to Florida. I’ve heard it said and have experienced this in Orlando, but Florida is the new California – I hate that reference but we have the beaches, great weather, low taxes, incentives for small business, and freedoms that many other states do not and did not see during the pandemic that caused a huge exodus from states into ours.

This didn’t help our already low inventory crisis. I remember complaining about low inventory in 2011 and it has only continued decreasing monthly.

 

 

What a healthy market can sustain:

 

 

Months’ supply refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace. Historically, six months of supply is associated with moderate price appreciation, and a lower level of months’ supply tends to push prices up more rapidly.

A healthy real estate market is a 6 month supply.

Where are we right now: According to the Florida Realtors monthly stats, we are at a 1.0-months’ supply while condo-townhouse inventory was at a 1.2-months’ supply.

Why has it not corrected itself? For the same reason this isn’t a bubble. We don’t have sufficient inventory for all those looking to relocate, stop renting or selling to buy a home.

According to Fortune:
Why is the inventory situation getting worse? It starts with demand, which isn’t letting up. We’re still amid the five-year window (between 2019 and 2023) when every millennial born in the generation’s five largest birth years (between 1989 and 1993) will hit the all-important first-time homebuying age of 30. Homebuilders, who cut back on building after the 2008 financial crisis, simply weren’t ready for this demographic wave that was looming even before the pandemic struck. To make matters worse, homebuilders are now struggling to even fulfill contracts on time as the overwhelmed global supply chain continues to create delays and shortages for everything from garage doors and windows to framing lumber.

There’s another reason inventory is shrinking again: Spiking mortgage rates. Back in December, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 3.11%. As of Friday, that rate has spiked to 3.85%. In theory, higher rates should cool the market over time. However, this sudden move up in mortgage rates, Bachman says, has corresponded in a short-term uptick in “buyer urgency.” Home shoppers, she says, are rushing to buy now before rates go even higher. Of course, that’s only taking more inventory off the market.

 

 

When can we anticipate a correction?

 

When it will correct – 3-5 catching up with housing and construction. Then we’ll see the inventory finally level to where the expansion phase is and will catch up with the housing shortage. Shortly after that is when I think we should see a balanced market.

Additionally, keep an eye out for interest rates rising and how that affects your buyers from purchasing a home. It will only become more costly over time.

 

Now what?

So what do you need to do now to make sure you still have a real estate career by the end of this year during this inventory shortage never seen before?

 

 

I have 4 simple but career changing ways:

1. This market is aggressive. We need to know what opportunities are available for our buyers. We have rent-to-own programs that we utilize as well as cash offers to help get our buyers the homes they want and compete against cash as cash because we all know FHA and VA don’t stand a chance but conventional

2. Work for your buyers (we know those are in abundance compared to sellers) by finding sellers. Be creative. We’ve contacted Expireds, FSBO’s and sent letters to homeowners of homes that match what our buyers are looking for. Door knocking. For sellers, eXp offers several programs that help set us apart from the rest in terms of listing presentations (Curbio, Express Offers, America’s Home Warranty)

3. Be the real estate expert in your market. Miami/Orlando is huge. You have to make sure you’re not trying to compete with everyone, you want to create a niche and expertise that people will find you. Mayor of your town.

4. Partner with a team or network that will train you on how to submit competitive offers and WIN! (discuss our weekly huddles) Getting ideas and discussing best practices – what has worked, what hasn’t. Feed off the energy and gain training to propel you through the next week
Joining eXp has given us access to tools and trainings we would otherwise have to pay thousands for. Here, it’s part of the culture. It’s what we do for one another since it’s an agent owned brokerage.
– Luxury caravan
– Team Building Mastery training
– Weekly accountability
– Referral system
– Support

For more questions on the real estate market in Central Florida or to SELL or BUY in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

Follow us on Instagram:
@RealtorJenelle
@WaypointeGroup

UPDATED Top Gyms in Oviedo and Winter Springs

Top Gyms in Oviedo and Winter Springs

Working out can feel like a burden if it’s been a while. Many people will wait to make it their new year’s resolution before they set foot in a gym for all of 3 weeks. But really, 80% of people who joined a gym in the beginning of the year quit within 5 months. Why wait for the new year? The best time to start is actually NOW

 
I love working out, if it’s the right workout. So I decided to test out different gyms all around Oviedo and some in Winter Springs and bring you my favorites, the pros and cons and then rate them on cleanliness, class offerings, hours open, customer service, caloric burn (intensity), cost and amenities.
 
Before I start with my top choices for gyms in Oviedo/Winter Springs, let me begin with a few caveats to keep in mind as you hear my assessment of the gyms I’ve chosen from my experience:
 
✅ Competitive

I’m competitive by nature and love aggressive, intense workouts with high intensity and training 

 
✅Bore Easily

I get bored easily and not a fan of monotony, especially in a workout.

 
✅ Disciplined

I program my schedule and discipline myself to go to the gym every workday and sometimes Saturday as well

 
✅ Need Motivation

I have zero motivation in big box gyms and can do a great job staring at weights not knowing what workout to do and then when I do, just sandbag it and walk out with little satisfaction.

 
✅ Experienced

I’ve tried every workout you can imagine over the last two decades (from hot yoga, to rock climbing, contact boxing to Zumba) so finding something engaging and motivating can be a challenge for me. As a result, I have high expectations in a gym and workout.

 
✅ Looking for Change

This list is for the Oviedo/Winter Springs resident that is looking for a change, possibly has plateaued or just wants to know what’s out there that’s different from the same ol’ thing.

👉 Now, research has shown that when a gym is more than 15 minutes away, the consistency of attendance declines. Already as it is, consistency in a gym is low among members. To see good results at any of these gyms, please commit to at least 6 months. It takes time to develop strength and burn fat so be patient. That’s why it’s important to find a gym you connect with that motivates you and helps you reach your fitness goals. 

In this list you’ll note that I did not include big box gyms like the Zoo, LA Fitness, Planet Fitness, and 24 Hour Fitness. Everyone pretty much knows what they offer and the cost, but if you’re like me and need motivation to see results, the gyms below are worthy of your time.  

⭐️Our Top Picks…

 
#1 BioFit Performance 

Price: $129+ (4 packages ranging from $129-499 per month) 

 

Pros: If I had to sum up my idea of a perfect workout experience, this is it. This is a family owned business that opened up during the COVID pandemic and has been successful due to their innovative science-based fitness model. You start with a Fit 3D assessment and a bio mechanic assessment to see where you are and where you need to be. They provide nutritional guidance, semi-private and private training along with unlimited classes in Conditioning (HITT style/ cardio/strength) and Durability (mobility/yoga). After your workout, you can unwind in the recovery room that offers a cold and hot jacuzzi’s and an infra-red sauna. In a nutshell, their goal is to give accessibility to all the amenities and resources a professional athlete does at the fraction of the price. 

 

Cons: Price may be a deterrent for most. Distance is a little farther from most Oviedo residents as it is located on the SW part of Oviedo.

 

Add’l info: High energy workouts as well as mobility classes, Fit 3D assessment and a bio mechanic assessment. Option for customized nutritional plan by a nutritionist, massage therapy, physical therapy, and chiropractic care. There is also a registered nurse on staff as well. Bathrooms have showers, towels and extra amenities. They also offer a wonderful smoothie bar and outdoor seating next to the Cross Seminole Trail. 

 

Website: https://biofitperformance.com/

BioFit Oviedo
#2 F45 Training

Price: $159 unlimited (no contracts)

 

Pros: This is a franchise new to Oviedo and Winter Springs. It involves stations and interval training that keeps you engaged the whole time. The HIIT workouts are excellent and never the same. The named workouts reflect the pods and timing of the workouts, keeping you on your toes. They offer cardio, resistance, and recovery.

The facilities are very clean, and they offer towels and water.  One of my favorite things is the fact that the workout is 45 minutes (hence the Functional 45 name). Another bonus is the location in the heart of Oviedo on Mitchell Hammock near Alafaya Trail.

 

Cons: Price, but they do offer class packs of 8 if you don’t want to do the unlimited. 

 

Add’l info: You can connect your heart rate monitor and track it during the workout. They also have great competitions to stay connected to the F45 community and extracurricular activities like kickball tournaments and running groups (Tuskawilla)   

🩺❤️ Heart rate monitor tracking throughout workout

 

Website: https://f45training.com/

F45 Tuskawilla
#3 Orange Theory Oviedo 

Price:  $159 (Unlimited classes)

 

Pros: Unlimited assessments throughout the month to track your progress. High energy cardio and strength training. High energy music and coaching that is motivating and keeps you on track where ever you are physically. Showers and filtered water. They offer water bottles for $1. Follow up email with workout results, calorie burn, and tracking your progress. Class times offered. 

 

Cons: Cost can be a deterrent for many. You better like to row and run on a treadmill.

 

Add’l info: Unlimited package is $159 per month but they have different plans available. You have to buy a heart monitor but they let you use one if you don’t have it for your first class. This is the longest I have ever been on a treadmill (which I hate) but I stayed motivated and focused. Felt great at the end.

🩺❤️ Heart rate monitor tracking throughout workout

 

Website: https://www.orangetheory.com/  

#4 Riverside Fitness

Price: $39.95 (unlimited gym use and classes) – No contract


Pros: No contracts or initiation fees. Only $45 per month for unlimited classes and open gym. Class options include Les Mills classes, Core, Combat and yoga. Classes are well organized with a timer and offers a great full body workout. The members are all really nice and welcoming. Trainer goes around to make sure you’re doing the work out correctly. The yoga class was good. Sign-up is easy online and gets you connected with their MindBody app to register for classes. 

 

Cons: There are not a lot of class times, but the ones that are are convenient for most people’s schedules. Not really easy to connect immediately with staff, but owner is wonderful. Not high energy classes overall, but good workout.


Add’l info: The open floor gym and the classes offered are in different buildings in the same shopping center. Showers are in the main gym facility. Great prices and definitely something to consider if you’re in it you live in the east part of Oviedo. No childcare but was really cool to see two young kids joining their parents through the circuit. They modified workouts but they got to do it with their parents. Owner, Wayne, has started the Oviedo community garden and loves to help bring health to the city.


Website: riversidefitness419.com

Riverside Fitness Oviedo
RIverside Fitness
#5 Crossfit Tough As Nails

Price: Unlimited options = $100 (Student), $125 (First responders & teachers), $145 (regular option)  

 

 

Pros: If your competitive in nature this is a great work out for you. Classes are offered several times throughout the day for the WOD (workout of the day). Trainers care about technique and form. Very encouraging environment and supportive in teamwork. Aggressive workouts but can be tailored to your strength and ability. Showers available. 

 

 

Cons: If you don’t pay attention to the trainers, you can get very injured in the workout. The goal at Crossfit is to continue lifting and beating your personal record, so if you don’t want to lift heavy, this may not be the place for you.

 

 

Add’l info: This CF box offers MMA and Jiu Jitsu training. They focus on competition if that’s your goal. Every year they encourage the members to sign up for the Crossfit Open which is very encouraging for new and experienced members. If you’re looking to build muscle in a competitive atmosphere this is definitely a great option. They offer teachers and first responders discounts on memberships. 

 

 

Website: tlpnails.wpengine.com

#6 Pure Barre

Price: $129 Unlimited

 

 

Pros: Who would think that such small movements could make you so sore? This workout is not at all like my #1-5 choices but if I had to veer from my HIIT workouts, it would be here. I was a member of Breaking Barre for a year but I actually preferred Pure Barre. The service, the staff, the ambiance, the studio, I liked it all much better. It’s also located in Oviedo on the Park which makes it a great location from most of Oviedo.    The workouts are surprisingly challenging and while I’ll stay with my HIIT regiment, this is a great alternative as it is a total body workout.

Great for those with injuries or post pregnancy as you don’t place a lot of stress on your joints but you’re building your muscle. 

 

Cons: The only one for me is the lack of cardio and high intensity, but you’ll get intensity in a different way here. 

 

Add’l info: Great options for class times and very responsive staff.  

Website: https://www.purebarre.com/location/oviedo-fl 

Pure Barre Oviedo
#7 Elite Boxing Fitness Center
 

BEST TECHNICAL BOXING GYM 

Price: $99+ (based on different training packages)  

Pros: Great atmosphere and family feel. Amazing work out. The most authentic boxing experience you’re going to have in Oviedo hands-down. This is definitely not your boxing class experience that you would get at a big box gym. This is a contact boxing gym so make sure to buy mouthguard and headgear. They’ll teach you the right technique and great training. Offer kids classes.

 

Cons: No showers. Website is hard to navigate to find any information so it’s best to give him a call to find out the class times. Not a workout for everyone. 

 

Add’l info: Definitely not for the faint of heart. Very aggressive and intense. Water fountain, but no filtered water. I got punched in the face and left with a bruise. Didn’t like it but loved the intensity. Dorian is the owner and main trainer at this gym and he loves what he does. Definitely a lot of passion and the members love training here.

 

Website: eliteboxingfitnessstudio.com

Elite Boxing Oviedo
#8 Title Boxing

Price: $69+ (based on different packages)  

 

Pros: This place had very friendly staff, good hype-up music, showers, High-intensity cardio workout. Good central location in Oviedo off of Alafaya. They offer a section of free weights to do on your own. 

 

Cons: Insufficient classes in the early AM. One year contractual commitment and then month-to-month thereafter. Doing boxing and kickboxing over time may become redundant if you want more of a variety. 

 

Add’l info: This is a boxing/kickboxing gym. Need to buy gloves and wristbands. They have a water fountain but make sure to bring your own water bottle or you may be waiting in line after every round to catch a sip.

 

Website: titleboxingclub.com/oviedo

Title One Oviedo
#9 Rise N Grind Oviedo (Boxing)

Price: $150 unlimited, $30 drop-in rate, $25 drop-in rate for youth 

 

Pros: This is a HIIT boxing studio that offers an intimate setting for those that don’t like larger gyms. Class sizes are small and great for early risers. Classes are one hour long. The owner is very committed to the members and their fitness goals. 

 

Cons: Take the name seriously because there are only morning classes and they are extremely limited with only one time most days, two times Tuesday and Thursday and no Wednesday class (at least for now). You’ll have to buy your gear (gloves, wraps).

Because it’s not an automated scheduled clock like many gyms on this list, the class may start late and end late so if you like to stick to a tight schedule, this may not be the best option.

 

Add’l info: They offer youth classes and do outreach opportunities and classes for youth in the community. The offer kids camp and after school camps just check their schedule. Follow their social media! It’s inspiring! 

 

Website: https://www.risengrindoviedo.com/ 

Rise N Grind Oviedo Boxing
#10 Breakthrough Fitness

Price: $100+ (based on different training packages)  

 

Pros: They offer some classes and you can take it with or without the class trainer. Really great customer service from the staff. Delicious shakes are made on the spot and sold at the gym. Staff really cares about your fitness journey. 

 

Cons: If you didn’t care for the workouts on the first three days, your motivation for returning to do the same workout later that week may wane. No showers or filtered water. 

 

Add’l info: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday schedule is the same as Thursday, Friday, Saturday. AMRAP (As many reps as possible) workouts and high interval intensity training is the norm. Drinking fountain is provided. Intensity was not as high in the workouts as I would have liked. 

 

Website: breakthroughfitnessfl.com

Breakthrough Fitness Oviedo
#11 Row House Oviedo

Price: Starting at $79 introductory rate  

 

Pros: Good location in Oviedo (Sprouts shopping center off Alafaya Trail). Responsive team and great energy in the class. Coach was very motivating and challenged the entire “row crew” to push further. They teach good posture and proper technique for rowing.

 

Cons: Very limited class schedule (2 classes a day) for the time being and only 30-45 minute workouts. You really need to love rowing for this to be your main workout because they have classes where all you do is row the whole class, which may be great for some, not for me.

 

Add’l info: They offer lockers, water fountain, sanitizing of the stations after the workout. 

 

Website: https://www.therowhouse.com/location/oviedo

Row House Oviedo
#12 Club Pilates

Price: $199 + $59 sign-up fee + 3 month commitment

 

Pros:  Pilates is a great stretching  workout in general and this gym includes a reformer, TRX and a few other items they use in workouts. The strength aspect will mostly be your own body resistance. They offer several different types of workouts within the Pilates umbrella that gives you a little bit of everything.

This is a great workout for those injured or recovering from injuries as they are not high intensity and can help rebuild muscle slowly. 

 

Cons: It’s a franchise and everything has a fee. They’re one of the last gyms I’ve seen that actually charges a sign up fee AND require a membership contract. You do have the option of dropping in a class for $30. I forgot my grip socks for my “free trial” so I had to pay $17 for grip socks! I’m still frustrated about this because it turned out to be the most expensive “free trial” I’ve ever done.  You can really do this barefoot but they require grip socks. 

I’ve done Club Pilates a few times and didn’t really break a sweat. I also don’t get the higher heart rate where you burn those calories, so this workout wasn’t for me. 

 

Add’l info: They offer a wide variety of class times great for any schedule. Once they have your information, their follow-up is consistent.

 

Website: https://www.clubpilates.com/location/oviedo

Club Pilates Oviedo
Honorable Mention

YMCA Oviedo 

Beautiful facility with pool, childcare area, open gym, and classes. Great for the whole family with affordable prices. But again, if you are looking for results and need guidance and motivation this probably isn’t the best fit. 

Website: YMCA Oviedo

I personally have not seen good results in big box gyms because of my need for motivation, but if you do this could be a really good alternative. 

Let’s Wrap This Up…

 

 

I’ve broken up these reviews based on my assessment. Some of the things that matter to me may not necessarily matter to you which is why I want to give you all the options. Whichever gym you choose, just make sure you love the style and feel of the gym so that you maintain consistency. 

 

Remember that beyond 15 minutes from your house you are less likely to commit to a gym and I want to make sure consistency is there. Don’t try a gym for a month and give up. Whichever one you choose make a commitment to be there for at least six months to a year in order to really see a difference. I recommend changing up the gym after a year and a half or when you start plateauing.

 

I’ve chosen my way to workout and stay in shape, what’s yours? Find a way to stay in shape and feel great this year!

7 Things Buyers Need To Know in This Market

It's a difficult market for home buyers, but...

Here are 7 things you should know when buying in this market to help you set the stage for what is going on right now:

  1. You may have to submit 6-10 offers in this market before you get one accepted because of the demand and low inventory. Be patient with your agents!
  2. You may find out it’s pending on Zillow or Realtor.com before your agent tells you. It’s not their fault, they just haven’t received a response from the listing agent because the listing agent was slammed with offers. It doesn’t excuse it on the listing agents part, but understand if they’ve received more than 10 offers, they’re weeding through a lot of information and didn’t get back to your agent before trying to stop showing requests so they just switched it to pending.
  3. You’re competing against cash offers and big hedge fund investment companies. You’ll need to submit a true highest and best, not full price. Unfortunately, that doesn’t fly in this market for highly desirable homes. I’m truly sorry buyers.
  4. Offerpad and OpenDoor have a large percentage of the inventory in Central Florida and they are consistently overpriced by tens of thousands. Most of the time they don’t want to budge on pricing which is why they’ve been on the market so long. They also don’t disclose anything about the property that would be of value to a buyer. Buyer’s just do your due diligence if you pursue one of these as you would any other home.
  5. This is not the time to look for a dream home. This is time to find a realistic purchase that you can redesign later. Just get into a home before rates go up because pricing will not crash.
  6. Be realistic with your expectations. In other words, don’t have as many or you won’t be able to find a house.
  7. Don’t give up, but you will need tough skin. Don’t get married to any one property just in case it doesn’t end up working out.

Unlike any market

This is a market I’ve never seen before ever. As a real estate professional, I’ve seen prices soaring, inventory high, market crash, foreclosures and short sales in abundance, a balanced buyer and sellers market, a buyers market, and then a sellers market with rapidly shrinking inventory…but this by far is the lowest inventory I’ve ever experienced.

 

In 5 counties in Central Florida, we have under 1500 homes for sale. That’s insane. But even so, we continue to get our buyers under contract and into homes.

It’s possible, but please make sure to pay attention to the 7 things a buyer needs to know in this market to succeed.

For more questions on the real estate market in Central Florida or to SELL or BUY in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

Follow us on Instagram:
@RealtorJenelle
@WaypointeGroup

What is driving up real estate prices

What is happening in real estate

 

Back in July I spoke of something really serious that has only worsened the real estate market since then and has gone completely understated…hedge funds are buying out homes in droves. They are outbidding actual home owners left and right with cash offers above asking.

Who is buying up all the inventory?

 

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset managers. Already owning more than $34 billion in real estate, their goal is to become one of the largest landlords and they are well on their way.

 

According to a NY Times article, BlackRock is buying every single-family house they can find, paying 20-50% above asking price and outbidding normal home buyers. Wall Street’s latest real estate acquisitions have ballooned to roughly $60 billion, representing hundreds of thousands of properties. It’s no wonder home buyers in this market are up against as many as 70 offers on a property and don’t stand a chance against cash offers almost $100K above asking as we’ve seen in homes in the Orlando area.

 

More than 1/2 of the countries properties are owned by institutional investors.

 

In the great recession, we saw over 6 million homeowners lose their home. While many have since purchased a property, large hedge funds like BlackRock took advantage of the opportunity and started sweeping up real estate. Almost two decades later, we have a new generation trying to make their splash in real estate with homeownership only to be pushed out during another type of crisis: inventory.

 

There are so many factors that are affecting low inventory, but the largest is the shortage of laborers and supplies which has in turn affected construction and new inventory which is a necessity in growing markets.

The Effect of Low Inventory

 

The effect of low inventory has created a wild west of sorts for sellers and buyers where sellers are definitely capitalizing on their earnings to an extent that has created buyer fatigue, frustration and really not even being able to keep up with the increase in prices.

 

FEDs have announced an interest rate hike (or two or four), but that doesn’t help solve any problem. In fact, it just worsens the situation for buyers because it will just continue to drive up the expense of purchasing a home.

What We Do

One incredibly helpful thing we do on the listing side and I’ve seen it done for me on the buyers side, is real estate professionals working together to help actual home buyers get into homes instead of companies. 


How? Leverage the offers we receive and give the home buyers a chance at competing to see if they can win. It still gives the seller the earnings they want while allowing the home buyers the ability to compete with large cash offers.


Not every agent does this, but those that want to give home ownership a fighting chance, try.

For more questions on the real estate market in Central Florida or to SELL or BUY in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

Follow us on Instagram:
@RealtorJenelle
@WaypointeGroup

2022 Real Estate Forecast

The 2021 Recap

The last 22 months have been some of the wildest in real estate history, as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the speed and intensity of recent trends in Florida and all around the country.

Home prices surged to record-breaking highs. Interest rates dropped to historic lows. On top of that, we saw serious labor shortages and everything from inflation to supply chain issues further affecting the 2021 housing market. This became the perfect storm for sellers and a daunting prospective for homebuyers making it increasingly difficult for younger buyers to purchase their first home.

The 2022 Forecast

We all know that no one can predict what the next year will bring, but here’s what industry experts are saying. Home prices are expected to continue to rise, though at a slower rate than last year. As a result, the 2022 housing market will continue to present challenges for new buyers looking to make their real estate purchase.

For those looking to sell, existing homeowners will likely have another year to capitalize on equity. Or, if not interested in selling, take advantage of rising property values and refinance — if they haven’t already. I would recommend refinancing sooner rather than later as interest rates are said to increase in 2022.

Experts also predict two major 2021 trends: low housing inventory and supply chain issues, both of which will continue to be the major obstacle and challenge for construction and renovations.

What to expect in 2022

Two major topics we’ve been talking about that is said to hit the scene in 2022 is inflation and rising interest rates. Chief economist the National Association of Home Builders, Robert Dietz, said, “For a homebuyer, 2022 is going to require patience and strategy,”

One thing we heard a lot of in 2020 and 2021 were buyers waiting for the market to crash or slow down.
In a recent CNET article, Karan Kaul, senior research associate at the Urban Institute, cautioned buyers saying, “If you think you’re going to wait on the sidelines for the market to cool off, that usually doesn’t work. “Timing” the market is a tricky enterprise, and prices seem unlikely to decrease meaningfully any time soon.”

Quick recap:

Combined with historically low interest rates, a record-breaking number of homeowners were able to tap into their home equity in 2020. As property values surged during the first year of the pandemic, cash-out refinancing levels were at their highest since the 2007 financial crisis.

We’ve seen how this increase in equity for homeowners has become a difficult situation for homebuyers even with the low interest rates, but unfortunately the pricing doesn’t look like it’ll change much in 2022, but interest rates will, making it even costlier for buyers in 2022.

Construction delays and soaring prices

As stated in CNET, “Supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic continue to delay shipments which impedes new construction. That is only making the market that much more competitive along with the rising price of existing homes across the US. And the number of people looking to buy is also increasing, thanks in large part to millennials entering the housing market in growing numbers.”

Buyers are hitting in the market in droves and even with those willing to wait, there are still plenty out there, including cash investors, that are still flooding the market and surpassing the supply of inventory available.

Additional challenges for new construction, which typically alleviates inventory issues in the real estate market, include a lack of building materials, higher cost of building materials like lumber, appliances, windows and doors, and even garage doors. Further complicating the picture is a sustained labor shortage, particularly for skilled construction workers.
It’s clear that demand will continue to outweigh supply for some time to come. We continue to hear we are 3-5 years behind in construction.

Something to watch for

The Federal Reserve announced that it will wind down bond purchasing and look to raise interest rates next year. Higher interest rates will only make things more difficult for those looking to buy, as they raise both the average monthly payment and the total lifetime cost of a mortgage.

For more questions on the real estate market in Central Florida or to SELL or BUY in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

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Renovating Your Home FAQ

Renovating Your Home? Check Our FAQ’s!

 

1. How do I pick a contractor?

Ideally, you want to build the same kind of relationship with your contractor as you do with your real estate agent: one built on trust that makes you want to go back to that person for any future needs. Your contractor should be a very good listener and communicator. You want them to “get” your vision for your home, and to keep you in the loop every step of the way. Do your due diligence by checking out contractors’ reputations, talking with other clients, and looking at work they have done previously before you make your selection.

2. How much will my project cost?

Of course, the answer depends upon the scope of your project, but in order to get the best estimate from your contractor, take time to write down each detail of your plan so that the contractor can include everything in their estimate. Renovations are famous for taking longer and costing more than originally planned, but this is often because the homeowner makes additions or changes along the way, or they don’t realize that, for example, if you move a wall in your home, you may have to then reroute electricity and outlets. One item often leads to another, so you have to look at everything piece by piece.

3. How long will renovations take to complete?

As we said above, this depends on the amount of work being done– and how many changes are made along the way. The more pre-planning you do, the better estimate your contractor can give you.

4. How do I prioritize projects?

If you are living in your home during renovations, you may want to plan out the project in phases, so you can live out of some rooms while others are being worked in. You may also need to phase projects based on cost and availability of funds.

5. Where do I begin?

You begin by conducting a lot of research. Start a look book for your home, either in a notebook or online, collecting pictures of the look and finishes you want. Talk to different contractors, and visit kitchen, bathroom, appliance, and flooring showrooms to get ideas on selections and pricing.

6. Do I need permits?

Your contractor will know what projects require permitting. Make sure that you do abide by permitting regulations, as failure to secure proper permits can come back to bite you if further work is needed down the road.

7. How much will renovations increase my home value?

Every homeowner hopes that making improvements will increase their home’s value, and this is usually the case, but sometimes what homeowners view as improvement can turn out to be liabilities to future buyers. For example, don’t put so much money into the house that it becomes more expensive than the rest of the neighborhood. And be careful not to add personal style preferences that can’t be easily changed, like ornamental fixtures, radical architecture, or unusual landscape features. 

8. How should I pay for renovations?

If you have the cash to pay for your renovations, that’s certainly a good way to go. Otherwise, you might consider a home equity loan with a manageable monthly payment or a revolving line of credit that you can use for renovations as well as emergencies that may arise later.

For more questions on renovations or real estate in Central Florida or for real estate market information in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

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Best Homes to See Christmas Lights in and Around Oviedo (UPDATED)

It’s the time of year again and if you’re like us, there’s nothing like Christmas lights to get us even more excited about this time of year! Thanks to our great Oviedo group on Facebook, neighbors have compiled a great list of homes in the Oviedo and surrounding areas to check out this year. Here are some of our favorites:

Oviedo, Winter Springs and Chuluota

 
OVIEDO

🎄 Neely Street in Oviedo (Alafaya Woods)

🎄 1055 Brielle Ave (Alafaya Woods)

🎄 1039 Gore Drive, Oviedo – features a Santa letter box so leave your address and Santa will write back (Alafaya Woods)

🎄 1003 McKinnon Drive, Oviedo (Alafaya Woods)

🎄 1046 McKinnon Drive , Oviedo (Alafaya Woods)

🎄 726 & 749 S Lake Claire Cir, Oviedo

🎄 1009 Cutoff Branch Ct., Oviedo

🎄 94 E. Magnolia Street, Oviedo

🎄 5686 Magnolia Bloom Terrace, Oviedo

🎄 680 Neile Court, Oviedo (Geneva Drive)

🎄 290 Crystal Circle, Oviedo (right off Geneva Drive)

🎄 517 Oak Street, Oviedo (tune to 90.1FM for music)

🎄 2816 Ashton Terrace, Oviedo (South of W. Chapman off Aloma) 

🎄Lowery Drive and Moore Drive, Oviedo (off 434 and Carrigan Ave)- several neighbors have lights

🎄 1020 Lantania Place Oviedo (Palm Valley has several homes lit up)

🎄 Carnaby Drive in Carillon Westhampton (2 houses with programed light show and 2 houses Grinch themed)

🎄 2754 Running Springs Loop, Oviedo (Isles of Little Creek) – Hot chocolate packets and candy canes are available. If you want your child to have a letter sent to them from Santa, deposit the letters in the North Pole mailbox and Santa will return it by Christmas.

🎄 805 Wellington Ave (Bentley Woods – near Oviedo H.S.)

🎄 1018 Corbin Ct, Oviedo (Near Oviedo H.S.)

🎄 Horseman Drive in Kingsbridge East

WINTER SPRINGS

🎄 Bivona Christmas Light Show – 1601 North Wind Ct. Winter Springs – 6:30-10:45pm until New Year’s. Tune in to 91.3 FM

🎄 1601 N Wind Ct, Winter Springs

🎄 1209 Wolverine Trail, Winter Springs

🎄 1212 Andes Dr, Winter Springs, beginning 11/28 hours are 7-10 PM

🎄 681 Oswego Court, Winter Springs – All homemade wood decorations unlike any other home

CHULUOTA

🎄 Kilowatt Christmas Lights – Home is for sale so NO lights this year, but they will be back at a NEW location for 2022.

🎄 274 Clearview Road, Chuluota (Tree Monkeys Christmas lights Spectacular. Christmas Eve – cookies and cocoa with Santa’s elves too!)

🎄 1200 Enderby Court, Chuluota

🎄 1164 Groveland Drive, Chuluota

 

Christmas lights in Oviedo - Waypointe Realty
Christmas lights in Oviedo - Alafaya Woods

Nearby Oviedo: Casselberry, Winter Park, Altamonte Springs

🎄 Oak Vista Lane in the Garden Lake Estate Subdivision of Winter Springs at the corner of Dodd and Dike Rd. Nearly the whole street is lit up – 6-9 PM

🎄 Fye’s Crazy Christmas House, 407 Eagle Circle, Casselberry (Times are Sunday – Thursday 5:30pm-9pm and Friday- Saturday 5:30pm-10pm – weather permitting)

🎄 Johanessen Lights, 7849 Georgeann Street, Winter Park – featured on Great Christmas Light Fight 2016. December 6- January 2, 6-9pm – They’re back for 2021!

🎄 7324 Blue Jacket Place W., Winter Park (located near Aloma and Goldenrod in the Woodcrest Subdivision)

🎄 3681 Oak Vista Lane, Winter Park

🎄 518 Dew Drop Cove Court, Casselberry

🎄 387 Brittany Circle, Casselberry

🎄 780 Diane Circle, Casselberry

🎄 239 Lake Ellen Drive, Casselberry

🎄 337 Kimi Court, Casselberry

🎄11 Winding Ridge Road, Casselberry- Has a light show set to music

🎄 Lemonwood Court, Altamonte Springs (whole block is decorated)

🎄 Cranes Roost Park, Crane’s Roost Park (decorations around lake and park)

Christmas lights in Oviedo
Christmas lights in Chuluota - Tree Monkeys
11 winding ridge rd casselberry fl 32707

December Market Report – Oviedo

What is happening in Orlando’s real estate market. Here is the rundown and even though the holidays are typically a slower time in real estate that’s not what we’re seeing.

If you have any questions about the market or how we can help you buy and sell in this market, contact us!

For more questions on historical homes in Central Florida or for real estate market information in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

Follow us on Instagram:
@RealtorJenelle
@WaypointeGroup

Why the Zestimate failed Zillow

The “Zestimate”

Zillow’s Zestimate unfortunately became the go-to reference for US homeowners in terms of the value of their home. This was always something that has frustrated real estate professionals like myself, because we knew it wasn’t accurate. But when Zillow tried to use its algorithm to buy and sell homes, it misread the market in a severe way.

The company’s instant buyer program, which is better known as the iBuyer, launched in 2018 in Phoenix and is where Zillow and their subsidiaries started using algorithms to quickly value, buy, and sell homes. It joined a rapidly growing market in the Arizona city where Opendoor, Redfin, and Offerpad had been buying and flipping homes since around 2014.

The iBuyer

The principle behind iBuying is simple: These companies leverage the power of big data and they estimate the price they think they can sell a property and then offer a really low offer, lower than a traditional buyer, but make it attractive by guaranteeing it’s a cash offer and fast closing, leaving tens of thousands on the table for sellers for the sake of convenience.

Once an iBuyer owns a home, they work quickly to renovate the property and relist it—in theory for a profit. An analysis of millions of home sales across the US between 2013 and 2018 by academics at Stanford, Northwestern, and Columbia Business School found that iBuyers made around 5 percent profit by flipping homes.

Zillow’s Secret

Zillow believed it had the secret to the iBuying world: the Zestimate. They launched this algorithm in 2006, which has created home valuations for millions of homes across the US before it was put to work estimating the possible price of property Zillow itself bought.

John Wake, a real estate analyst around Phoenix since 2003 said: “I don’t know anybody in the spring of 2020 who predicted the market would do what it did. No one foresaw it would take off and become so strong.”

In March 2020, pretty much all activity in most housing markets stopped as the world shut down and economic uncertainty reigned. By November 2020, we saw sales increase as inventory continued to decrease and 2021 saw even more exponential growth, including iBuyers.

What happened?

In early October 2021, Zillow recorded its most active week buying homes in Phoenix, part of its goal to buy 5,000 a month by 2024. We saw the same in Orlando, one of the other markets Zillow targeted consistently. Then suddenly Zillow stopped buying all around the country.

It became clear a month later.

The shift in Zillow

When announcing the company’s third-quarter results earlier this month, Zillow cofounder and CEO Rich Barton said, We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated and continuing to scale Zillow Offers, the company’s home buying program, would result in too much earnings and balance-sheet volatility.”

Zillow completely halted their iBuyer program and said it would cut 25 percent of its workforce.

Barton told analysts that the premise of Zillow’s iBuying business was being able to forecast the price of homes accurately three to six months in advance. That reflected the time to fix and sell homes Zillow had bought.

But the forecasts proved inaccurate in 2021’s shifting housing market. In the second quarter, Barton said, Zillow actually was able to sell homes for 5.8 percent more than it expected. In the third quarter, though, Zillow sold homes for 5 to 7 percent less than it forecast.

Zillow’s competitors also slowed down buying in October.

Where they failed

Problems for Zillow came when they started purchasing properties above market value based on the Zestimate program only to find that the numbers didn’t hold up and they were quickly bleeding profit.

Nine in 10 homes Zillow bought were put up for sale at a lower price than the company originally bought them, according to an October 2021 analysis by Insider. If each of those homes sold for Zillow’s asking price, the company would lose $6.3 million. Barton admitted that, “Put simply, our observed error rate has been far more volatile than we ever expected possible and makes us look far more like a leveraged housing trader than the market maker we set out to be.”

Zillow says its algorithm, which updates the estimated value of more than 100 million properties by analyzing dozens of variables, including the size and location of a home, isn’t at fault. “We remain confident in the ability of our Zestimate,” a spokesperson says, citing the system’s median error rate for on-market homes of 1.9 percent, and 6.9 percent for off-market homes.

To make the iBuying program profitable, however, Zillow believed its estimates had to be more precise, within just a few thousand dollars, which it’s not. Throw in the changes brought in by the pandemic, and the iBuying program was losing money.

How they could have avoided it

Experts say if Zillow had stayed in the bounds of the algorithm’s valuations, they may not have had a problem, but there are valuations of homes outside of the cookie-cutter homes that Zillow’s algorithms just don’t understand. We’ve seen that in our market over and over. They don’t understand rural properties, custom homes, land value, lakefront vs corner lot without a lake in the same community and so on and so forth.

Many experts in the real estate industry have different thoughts on why it failed. Anywhere from trying to acquire too much at once to having the inability to predict the future home prices and others say they tried to manipulate the pricing with their algorithm in order to control the market and their sales. Either way, their purchasing power ended up hurting their bottom line in the end and now they have to go into recovery mode as they start selling off their current inventory in the next few months.

For more questions on historical homes in Central Florida or for real estate market information in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

Follow us on Instagram:
@RealtorJenelle
@WaypointeGroup

Don’t expect more inventory | What to expect in 2022

New Median Price

The median U.S. home price just passed $400,000 for the first time ever, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

In the third quarter the median home price hit $404,700, jumping nearly 13% since third quarter of 2020, when the median sales price was $358,700.

Though it’s an eye-catching number, the market has been hot of late, and a lack of inventory and high demand means foretold the rise in home prices.

Expected Rise in Prices

According to a recent note from Goldman Sachs, home prices could rise another 16% by the end of next year. Goldman economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that of all the pandemic shortages, the housing shortage might last the longest and that a crash is very unlikely.

According to the latest forecast by Fannie Mae, median home prices are expected to rise another 7.9% between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.

A recent note from Morgan Stanley showed that the country needs as many as 1.5 million homes to get back to normal and that the pace of real estate availability is three years behind.

“The housing shortage has contributed meaningfully to the record pace of home price appreciation we are currently experiencing,” Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in August. “While the magnitude of the shortage described above means it is unlikely that we will find ourselves with an excess of supply at any point in the near future, the pace at which supply is contracting has slowed.”

Don’t Expect Extra Inventory

Another bump in inventory people were expecting were foreclosures after the forbearance ended. That hasn’t been the case.

Even if default rates jump up there are too many companies sweeping them up directly from banks to make a difference.

Hedge funds with $20B in investments have been buying property in last 20 months which is a lot of the frustration with buyers trying to purchase through financing.

1400 homes are in default nationwide with Fannie and Freddie Mac. This is very very low. It’s great for the economy, but doesn’t help the inventory buyers were expecting around this time.

Most American’s have kept their mortgages current in spite of the pandemic, which is great, but it hasn’t helped inventory as many expected.

Vacancy rates are the lowest they’ve been since 1978.

Normally banks will have trainings for BPO’s and forbearance loans but instead they’re selling to hedge funds and not gearing up for excess bank owned properties which is what we normally see in the market after a bank forecloses on a home.

Hedge funds are snatching up inventory if banks are foreclosing or homes are going into default

Attention Buyers

All of that to say, do not anticipate spike in inventory. If you’re on the fence about buying, don’t be. Home prices will go up and so will interest rates making homes even more expensive than this year.

Additionally, if they do go down, interest rates will go up and still make home buying more expensive in the long run than looking for a property at this time.

For more questions on historical homes in Central Florida or for real estate market information in Orlando, Oviedo or surrounding areas, contact us at 407.801.9914.

Follow us on Instagram:
@RealtorJenelle
@WaypointeGroup